Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 23 2020 722 17056 6 93 134
August 24 2020 728 17271 6 83 138
August 25 2020 737 17374 6 83 141
August 26 2020 748 17439 6 90 136
August 27 2020 768 17453 6 100 139
August 28 2020 780 17458 6 107 135
August 29 2020 790 17494 6 111 136

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 23 2020 301 11538 0 49 71
August 24 2020 302 11610 0 43 63
August 25 2020 304 11638 0 38 63
August 26 2020 312 11727 0 38 68
August 27 2020 323 11824 0 44 71
August 28 2020 331 11880 0 50 72
August 29 2020 342 11987 0 58 76

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 23 2020 358 6860 3 43 65
August 24 2020 358 6863 3 38 63
August 25 2020 359 6867 3 36 63
August 26 2020 362 6880 3 36 54
August 27 2020 363 6883 3 35 48
August 28 2020 367 7377 3 31 47
August 29 2020 371 7376 3 28 48

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 23 2020 70462 1115149 1081 7256 9908
August 24 2020 70854 1119622 1081 6627 9793
August 25 2020 71492 1128971 1094 6436 9707
August 26 2020 72260 1138581 1100 6519 9997
August 27 2020 73138 1148494 1111 6942 9932
August 28 2020 73981 1156807 1113 7151 9754
August 29 2020 74800 1164740 1119 7307 9744

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level. Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan) and SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based off of reference:

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)
Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 -- urge extra caution
> 28 > 40 decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 40 steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing '' '' ''
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
13.3 39.1 12 11 12.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
12 7 5.7 8.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
10.6 2.6 5.7 3.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
16.8 32.1 684.4 720.7 8.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
  • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-19 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1209"

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